POPULATION MOVEMENTS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA
 AND WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION

Draft

Statistical evaluation of the migratory flows in the Southern Mediterranean Area
by Sabina Mazza

The joint Declaration of the Barcelona Conference (12 Mediterranean partners and 15 EU member states, held in November 1995) stressed the importance attached to permanent and balanced economic development to create an area of prosperity shared across the Mediterranean basin. In this context, the progressive adoption of a free trade area and the strengthening of the relations between the members of the European Union and the Mediterranean countries has showed the need to have reliable, harmonised and up to date statistics.
	In the countries of the southern and eastern banks of the Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Malta, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey) there has been a culture of statistics for some decades. This culture is based on the presence of statisticians both within the National Statistical Institutes and in the other national public and private sectors, and also on the existence of statistical practices in the production of data (censuses, surveys), publication of data and their uses by a large public and by decision-makers.  
However, the situation of the National Statistical Systems is rather heterogeneous. Comprehension of the social situation of the Mediterranean countries is generally very limited while demand by the policy makers and private decision-makers is becoming greater. Labour market statistics have very often been found to be weak and the dissemination of social indicators relating to living conditions and poverty are very rare.
In the Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia), population issues as well as the sources used or potential are similar: there is a special interest in population growth and particularly its well being, education and protection.  Likewise, there is a big interest in labour force and unemployment issues. Against this background of interest, very few statistics are currently available. There is a keenness and awareness among the various interested Ministries, including, of course, the National Statistical Institutes, that population issues should be developed through enhancing existing sources and co-ordination of interested bodies. 
Jordan, Egypt and Syria, are showing interesting developments of their statistical systems, particularly in the areas of migrations, education and social protection.
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) instead recently born, is a small very dynamic institute that in few years succeed in building up a sufficiently reliable set of surveys and carry out a Population Census (1997). Lebanon is recovering from a long and devastating civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 1991. Consequently, there are many practical needs on, for example, education,  vocational training, action plans to deal with child labour and setting up new employment offices. Improving the statistical systems to meet user needs is just one.
 Finally Cyprus, Israel, Malta and Turkey, which statistical systems are fully developed, already started the process of harmonisation with the European standards, particularly advanced in Cyprus and Malta since their Governments are about to start the discussions with the European Commission for their accession to the Union.  
In this context, MEDSTAT, a statistical co-operation programme financed by the European Union, has been set up and some priority fields have been identified, such as statistics on: migrations, tourism, transports, external trade, training, environment, national accounts and the estimation of the Non Observed Economy.

            Main objectif of Med-Migr (a MEDSTAT migration statistics project) are: establish a regular collection of harmonised statistics on migrations in MED countries, improve co-operation between NSIs and other institutions, improve the harmonisation of statistics and the use of comparable definitions accordind to UN recommendations, improve the technical skills of experts in migration statistics, improve the quality and availability of migration statistics, produce information on migration flows bettween all the Euro-mediterranean countries.

           The MED countries needs are: to strenghten co-operation with other institutions in each MED country; to fully exploit existing sources, especially administrative sources: entry/exit border collection, work and residence registers; to access to data from receiving countries wether statistical or administrative

       Thanks to the active involvement of Statistical Institutes and Public Administrations responsible for tourism and for migration statistics in the Mediterranean partner countries, the co-operation established in these fields with and among the participating countries is making significant progress. 

       Border data collection systems are or could be a common data source for both tourism and migration statistics in the Mediterranean countries. These existing collection systems are comprised of two main sources: entry/exit records (administrative records in the hands of the Ministry of the Interior) and border surveys (conducted by National statistical Institutes or other national administrations such as the Ministry of Tourism). 

        Actually, statistical information on inbound tourism is considered of high priority for national users of the 12 Mediterranean countries. Most of the Mediterranean countries collect some information on inbound tourism through entry/exit cards filled in at the borders. Also some Mediterranean countries already conduct quite detailed surveys on inbound tourism. A crucial question, from the methodological point of view, concerns the way in which nationals resident abroad are considered in tourism statistics. In many cases nationals residing abroad are considered as "residents" in tourism statistics. Another issue is the origin of international visitors for which information in many cases are collected according to nationality, and not country of residence. 

         The aim of the inbound tourism surveys has been to test the feasibility for the Mediterranean countries to adapt and enhance their existing data collection systems on inbound tourism to collect information in line with the variables of the EU Directive. The surveys are providing information relating to the volume of inbound tourists, profile of inbound tourists, principal characteristics of the trip and expenditure. The variables included are: number of arrivals of international tourists (by country of residence, by main purpose of visit, by age and sex, by length of stay, by organisation of the stay, by principal made of transport, by main type of accommodation used), number of nights spent by foreign tourists by country of residence, international tourist expenditure per international tourist.

The history of mankind may be regarded as the history of migratory movements.  These movements were either voluntary and peaceful or forced and violent, depending on different conditions and circumstances (economic, political, social etc.).

Europe is no exception and immigration has always been a main feature of European society. There is no doubt that the Europe we know to-day is a multi-cultural region and the product of migratory movements.

Of particular interest to us is the Mediterranean basin. This has been regarded as the great crossroads of history, religions, cultures and civilizations.It has been the centre of tensions and dialogue.  It has also been for many centuries an important reference point for Europe in respect of exchange of ideas and traditions and trade in goods and services.  The anticipated Euro-Med Free Trade area is a concrete example of the vital importance of the Mediterranean basin to Europe.

Clearly, these new developments created new problems in the collection of migration data. The different categories of immigrants became the responsibility of different government departments with the result that, in the absence of a solid cooperation arrangement among the various departments concerned, the collection of migration data immediately became a difficult task.  

       Although a lot of work has been done, much more needs to be accomplished.  So, we have to consider some question. Firstly, in the light of the U.N. new set of guidelines on international migration statistics and  establishing some form of harmonization,  what type of migration data we want to take into consideration. Then, another problem is, however,  how to go about it, when most of the information sources (if they exist) are found at different places.  These may be governmental or non-governmental units. So we have, in the first instance, to take stock of the pertinent administrative and other records that exist. Some NSI’s have already overcome this hurdle; others are still finding it difficult to do it. 
       A second question we have to answer is: how many (and what kind of) migratory movements will persist in future? 

      For the next three decades, the demographic imbalance between the Northern shores and the Southern and Eastern shores of the Mediterranean is forecast to increase. On the one hand, the demographic situation throughout Europe has, since the late 1960's, been characterised by low fertility, falling mortality rates and an ageing population, giving rise at times to unsatisfied demand for labour in various regions. In contrast, the population of the Southern and Eastern shores of the Mediterranean may double by the year 2030 unless there are further declines in fertility levels in North African countries. This demographic imbalance is compounded by a development gap which again is forecast to be more evident in the coming years.

      The message is clear. Migration will continue to be an important statistical dimension for many years to come. 
      The last question we have to consider is: Is there a significant link between tourism and migration?  Basically, the two terms relate to movement of people but differ markedly in their definition. While a tourist may stay only one night in another place and the purpose of his visit should not be that of earning a living, an immigrant’s stay must be a longer one and is usually prompted by the need to have a job. In both cases, there are, however certain economic considerations. Tourism benefits the receiving country but in the case of migration both the receiving and the sending country benefit.  In the first case, there is the contribution of immigrants to the Gross Domestic Product, in the latter case the sending country benefits from remittances of immigrants to their homeland.  

      There are however important differences. While in various instances, emigration acts as an important safety valve to ease demographic pressures in the sending country, at times, it may pose socio-economic problems in the host country.  The nineties witnessed a number of such events. As an example, one may refer to the family reunion movement of the early nineties which, when conceived, was hailed as a major social achievement, but at times created new social, economic and administrative problems in the host countries.

       Nonetheless, both tourism and migration have to be measured so that their impact on the countries involved may be assessed.  In this sense, there exists considerable scope to treat both topic as complementary. There exist possibilities that a carefully designed survey questionnaire may serve both purposes.  But these possibilities have to be examined in the light of other “more important” issues.  The exchange of ideas and experiences during this meeting on this point will undoubtedly be of substantial benefit to us all.

 Some problems to measure migratory movements

       The search for sources of reliable data on population movements has, so far, proved to be a long and painful exercise. Moreover, there are still problems of definition which at times, may differ from one country to another. The consolidated tables of international publications, e.g. SOPEMI reports, are examples of the different definitions employed by countries in the compilation of their migration statistics, making international comparability a difficult exercise. 

For reasons of simplicity, difficulties in the collection, presentation and interpretation of migration statistical data may be grouped under six broad headings:

Firstly, most statistics are collected as a by-product, often at control points or borders by officials who are primarily concerned with specific legal requirements and definitions which may vary according to their use. For this reason, different categories of people who are allowed entry under different legal provisions are difficult to compare.

Secondly, contrary to the slow changing features of a population such as fertility and mortality trends which develop over a long period of time, migration flows tend to fluctuate widely, depending, among other things, on economic conditions, legislative provisions, and political decisions both in the country of origin and the host country. The statistical recording systems may not allow for the correct registration of rapid population movements.

Thirdly, official statistics do not record illegal migrants, some of whom might have entered legally but may lose their legal status when their permits expire. Others may enter illegally and remain unregistered.

Fourthly, sources of data are generally defective. Population registers may show those who register to satisfy certain administrative obligations, as when they apply for housing facilities or social benefits, but will not seek cancellation on their return to their homeland.

Fifthly, cross-checks to compare outflows and inflows between countries do not yield satisfactory results. Inflows are usually better registered in the host country, especially in cases where inflows are carefully controlled.

Sixthly, both stocks and flows are usually extracted from different sources. The characteristics of annual flows by age, sex, occupation and country of origin may be better recorded than the same characteristics in respect of stocks which are generally recorded during censuses and surveys.  

Statistics on international migration and statistics on international tourism may be derived from various sources. The source discussed in this report concerns data collection at the border, at the time of travellers’ entry into and/or departure from the country. If such data are collected, the main purpose is administrative, sometimes in combination with other purposes, especially the collection of information on international migration and on international tourism. Where a border card system is already in existence for administrative purposes, an extension of that system for purposes of migration and/or tourism statistics can  be effectuated with relatively limited effort and cost. Nevertheless, given the high cost of data collection from all passengers by border control systems, if these are to be used to gather international migration and tourism statistics, an effort needs to be made to distinguish between international migrants, tourists, and other travellers at the time of data collection so that the gathering of information can be targeted more effectively and the resources available can be spent on recording data of better quality (see e.g., Bilsborrow et al., 1997).
The data collected through border systems may provide inputs for planners and policy makers, as well as for marketing purposes. Although the detail of the information is limited, it may be made available at the level of small areas, given the high coverage of data collection. Furthermore, border information may be combined with data from other sources, such as censuses, labour force surveys, tourism expenditure surveys, etc., to produce a broad picture of migration and tourism.